The Time I Tried To Be An Economist....

Today the stock market was surprised when the Department of Labor released January employment numbers that showed a larger than expected addition over 400k rather than the 150k predicted (or as some feared, -200k in job losses). Part of these numbers also showed another increase in labor costs which contributes to the inflation narrative currently driving the Federal Reserve to consider raising rates.  

One thing that I think is lost in all of these discussions of rising labor costs is that part of the reason for the increase is due to pre-pandemic factors.  Lest we not forget that many states and municipalities passed laws several years ago to do that which the Federal government refuses to do:  increase the minimum wage.  A lot of these increases were implemented in step fashion, meaning increases every January 1st or July 1st or both.  Thus, when the January labor costs came in, part of the reason was that many states had implemented minimum wage hikes which tend to have a waterfall effect pushing wages up in other levels.  So I for one, am still of the “transitory” inflation belief——the difference is that most people have defined transitory to mean 1 year or less whereas I’m saying it’s more like 1-2 years.  

Remember that for years, we have had inflation at or below 2% per year so not only have wages been stagnant, in some cases they have been losing ground (hence the “living wage” push).  To average a 2% inflation rate as the Treasury desires, I can’t see having 1 year of “high” inflation as balancing out all those years where it was below.  Or am I missing something? 

Career networking as a Person of Color

 I’ve never been good at networking (just ask my mentor!).  Back in the day (pre-pandemic) when the world was full of in-person networking events, I was always the guy who was in the back of the room or near the bar, nursing his drink and waiting for everyone else to come up to me.  

Part of the reason is that I’m generally a shy person but another part of it was that being a person of color (POC) you were always the one who stood out in a crowd.  Everyone else looks the same, dresses the same and is usually the same color, but a POC is always going to stick out.  

When it got to the point where I would meet someone, the inevitable dreaded introduction would come. As an ethnic POC who isn’t named Jim, Sue or Bob, this usually means that when introducing myself, I get an uncomfortable pause or weird looks.  Now, I obviously know what my name is but telling someone who you just met what that name is almost always results in a “what’s that again?” or “how do you pronounce that?”. 

I get it.  It’s different from Bob or Pat but sometimes I wish I could just meet someone who just accepted the name and moved on the conversation.  Unfortunately, the next typical question asked within the first few minutes is “where are you from?”  Now, most White people get to answer that by saying “I’m from Des Moines” or a simple “back East” and get to move on.  No, not with POC’s.  We typically get this question and they don’t care or believe me if I say “I’m from Los Angeles” or “Phoenix” or anywhere in the continental USA or Canada.  What they’re really asking is “where did you come from?”, “what’s your ethnicity” or “you don’t look like someone from Des Moines”.  

So no you see why sometimes it’s more difficult for some POC’s to network——we don’t always get the same normal questions non-POC’s get.

Jobs top 200k but why can't some of us still not get hired?

Today the Labor Department's report on jobs added for last month was bullish again showing that the U.S. economy added about 213,000 new jobs.  An analysis by CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/heres-where-the-jobs-are--in-one-chart.html) points to where these jobs where created and show strong strength in the Professional and Business Services industries in particular.

I fall under that category as a consultant but despite all of the endless talk, discussion and whining by the media and supposedly by employers that they can't find workers, I (and others like me) still can't find a job.  I'm in a supposedly "hot" market in the West Coast where unemployment is supposed to be low and job growth decent.  I have years of experience in my field and am open to any possibilities.  Yet, when I apply for jobs, consulting gigs or even temporary help, I don't get any bites.  What's the deal with me and others like me?

Well perhaps the media is only focusing on the big picture numbers and not diving deeper into the actual industries AND regions where jobs really are scarce.  Manufacturing, construction and health care are all areas with labor shortages as are regions in the Midwest where typically, younger workers are leaving for greener (and probably warmer) pastures.  They also are probably typically paid lower wages than people like myself with years of experience even though we're open on salary levels.

So why are the employers complaining that there are no workers?  My view is that the narrow-minded Human Resources professionals typically see resumes like mine that either show extensive work experience or previous consulting work and automatically dismiss us.  Why?  Because either they think we'll be too costly in terms of salary or that we'll leave after a couple of months to go back to consulting.  So instead of talking with us, they throw us in the reject pile and then complain to their bosses that they can't find anyone (i.e. labor shortage).

How about you?  Do you fall in the same boat and have been looking for a job for a while with no luck?  I'd love to hear your stories and more here.

Yes Virginia, there may be a President Trump

The polls don't seem to work with this Presidential election cycle and perhaps that's because the pollsters are talking to the wrong people.  For all his banter, one thing that Donald Trump has got right in his speeches is that he has been attracting new voters to the primaries----the ones that don't follow convention and aren't part of the typical pollsters sample universe.  Because of this, it's possible that there is a huge undercounted/underrepresented group of voters out there that aren't being polled who will come out for the election in November and give Mr. Trump his predicted victory.

But there's also one other element out there that hasn't been counted on either-----disgruntled Bernie Sanders voters.  Much like the "Reagan Democrats" of the 1980's we just might have a whole other group of Democrat-to-Republican defectors in this upcoming election.  All spurned on by a hatred of Hillary Clinton.  These "Trump Democrats" don't necessarily support or believe in Mr. Trump's agenda, policies or beliefs but rather hate Hillary so much that they would rather vote for Mr. Trump than her.  Even those that do hate Trump or those who would never vote Republican can potentially hurt Mrs. Clinton simply by not voting.  Those non-votes are tantamount to a victory for Donald Trump and could, by Christmastime, lead to a President Trump.  Yes Virginia, myths can come true!